Comparison of Actual Experience With Estimates in the Trustees' Reports

E A C H Y E A R the Board of Trustees of the Federal o ld-age a n d survivors Insurance trust fund is required to subm i t to Congress a report dealing with the past and prospective operations and status of the trust fund. These reports were first required by the S o cial Security Act Amendments of 1939, and in accordance wi th these amendm e n t s the first report was submitted in January 1941.1 One of the most important features of these reports is t h e est imates of the expected operation a n d status of t h e trust fund during the ensuing 5 fiscal years. T h e first est imates dealt wi th the expected experience for the 5 fiscal years 1941-45, and each subsequent report has dealt wi th a like period, advanced by 1 year. Now that actual data are available for 7 full fiscal years, a comparison of actual ex perience with the various est imates is of interest i n showing t h e increasing effectiveness and accuracy of the es t imates as the program has grown. T h e comparisons m a d e here have been confined to benefits and contributions, since these comprise the bulk of total expenditures and income, respectively. Administrative costs and interest earnings play a relatively minor part in the expected operation a n d status of the trust fund and are therefore omitted from this d is cussion. Short -range cost es t imates on a cal endar-year basis h a d been developed at the t ime the 1939 amendments were considered by Congress (S. Rept . 734, 76th Cong., 1st sess., p. 17) . The first Trustees' report pointed out that these est imates h a d been s tated to be subject to a range of error because they had been made prior to the development of any actual experience and before the economic effects of the defense program were foreseeable. As a result, the first report went on to state , the 1939 est imates were con-